We need to talk about the ToRs

Introduction

1. The ToRs and their limitations

https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-convened-global-study-of-the-origins-of-sars-cov-2
Very first paragraphs of the ToRs
  • The ToRs explicitly state that SARS-CoV-2 had a natural zoonosis origin. The tone is set straight up in the first paragraphs of the document.
  • The ToRs accordingly never provide for investigation of a lab-related accident pathway, despite many precedents, for instance with SARS in Beijing in 2003.
  • The ToRs give veto right to China on the composition of the joint-team.
Annotated ToRs
  • That veto seems to have been used as the three candidates proposed by the US were all ignored.
  • The US names put forward to the WHO via ADM Bret Giroir (US representative on the executive board of the World Health Organization) were:
    - CDC epidemiologist Matt Moore, Director of CDC Vietnam’s Global Health Security Program,
    - Navy Captain Brianna Skinner, DVM, MPH, FDA Senior Regulatory Veterinarian
    - Dr Heinz Feldmann (German & American), chief scientist at the Rocky Mountain Labs (BSL-4) where he works with NIH and NIAID. Expert on BSL4 and BSL-3 containment.
  • The WHO would later deny that that available veto was exercised. However given that it had been negotiated in the ToRs it is rather unlikely that this is the full truth.
    Instead in a manner that many China experts would likely immediately recognise, it is quite possible that China had a chance to indirectly validate (possibly through a conversation) which candidate would make it to the list. Then that list would have been officially presented and immediately accepted. Thus the claim that China approved the list without raising any concern could be technically true, while for all purpose misleading.
  • The ToRs stipulates that the joint-team must largely review work done by China — the joint-team is not in a position to do its own independent research. The work is effectively done by the Chinese side, with some review by the international part of the team and possible requests for improvements or further considerations, but in fine the international members can only rely on what the Chinese side decides to provide them with.
Annotated ToRs
  • As per the ToRs (section ‘Ways of working’) and as confirmed by media reports, the joint-team work started in late 2020 (around October) via conference calls. The joint-team trip to China in February 2021 was actually just the medialised tail end of a work that has started about 3 months earlier. Very little is known about the earlier work conducted remotely — we can only imagine that it entailed reviews of progresses and tentative requests for more data and complementary studies.

2. The ToRs as Step 1 of a required Global study

  • We note that the ToRs take great efforts to present themselves as the Phase 1 of a Global study of the origins, starting with the designation as ‘Terms-of-Reference (ToRs) of the Global Study of the Origins of SARS-COV2’).
  • This is also stated straight up in the 3rd paragraph of the ToRs and repeated at length on the 4th paragraph, a paragraph that essentially points to a very controversial possible origin outside of China, enrolling for that purpose a sewage sample study in Barcelona that had serious methodological issues.
Extract from the very first page of the ToRs
  • Phase 2 (‘Long Term Plans’) of the ToRs then states the need for for further studies in other geographical areas:
ToRS — page 8

3. Secret negotiations and their implications

4. Timing issues with the ToRs

  • The WHO says that the ToRs were completed by fall 2020.
https://www.who.int/news/item/30-03-2021-who-calls-for-further-studies-data-on-origin-of-sars-cov-2-virus-reiterates-that-all-hypotheses-remain-open
  • But actually the ToRs are dated 31st July on the first page:
  • The file name is 20200802_tors_chn-and-who-agreed-final-version, so clearly the final version was finalized by the 2nd August.
  • We know that Peter Embarek was in China from the 10th July to the 3rd August. WHO + China would typically have nailed these down before his departure, hence the 2nd August makes a lot of sense.
  • The PDF itself was produced on the 24th October 20. The author of the PDF is given as being Olivier Le Polain who is a UK epidemiologist — who according to some source was part of the larger WHO team involved with the joint-study. It is possible, but still speculative, that he was the person accompanying Embarek in July 20 for the negotiation of the ToRs.
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-convened-global-study-of-the-origins-of-sars-cov-2
  • The document was added to the WHO site on the 5th November 20.
Main ToRs dates

5. Questions:

  • Why were the ToRs negotiated secretly when their importance was actually capital?
  • How could the WHO agree to ToRs that explicitly excluded any possible lab-related origin, when today Dr Tedros himself consider this a valid line of enquiry that requires proper work?
  • How could the ToRs be so lenient on China, especially by relying quasi-exclusively on Chinese studies, despite the fact that by the time of the negotiation of the ToRs, China had essentially done no such study at all since the WHO visit in February 2020 - at the clear irritation of Peter Embarek himself?
  • Why is the official narrative that the ToRs were finalised in fall 2020 when they were finalised by the 2nd August 20?
  • Why did the WHO delay from the 2nd August to the 5th November before publishing the ToRs?
  • What is Olivier Le Polain’s role with regard to the WHO? Why does his name appear as ‘Author’ in the PDF metadata? Was he with Peter Embarek in China to negotiate the ToRs?
  • What did the international joint-team members exactly do in the fall of 2020 when they were already working on the joint-study, before their trip to China, and how was the cooperation with China at the time?

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Opinions, analyses and views expressed are purely mine and should not in any way be characterised as representing any institution.

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Gilles Demaneuf

Gilles Demaneuf

Opinions, analyses and views expressed are purely mine and should not in any way be characterised as representing any institution.

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